Every time a Bitcoin UTXO is spent, SOPR captures whether that coin moved at a profit or a loss. Above 1 means coins are moving at profit. Below 1 means capitulation.
SOPR = Realised Value of spent outputs / Value at creation. Above 1.0: coins sold at profit. Below 1.0: coins sold at loss. In bull markets SOPR bouncing off 1.0 confirms continuation. In bear markets holding below 1.0 confirms capitulation.
SOPR sustained below 1.0 for months. Capitulation confirmed at $3,200. Recovery began when SOPR reclaimed 1.0.
SOPR crashed to 0.78 - sharpest reading in years. Marked the exact cycle low before the +1,700% bull run.
SOPR held above 1.0 and bounced off it as support repeatedly - textbook bull market behaviour.
SOPR broke below 1.0 and held there. Confirmed sustained bear until the FTX bottom at $15,476.
Every SOPR reading is derived from Bitcoin UTXO data - fully verifiable and immutable.
SOPR has accurately identified capitulation bottoms and bull continuations across every major cycle.
Current SOPR hovering near 1.0 - consistent with late distribution as market digests the ATH.
SOPR produces noisy short-term signals - single-day readings are less reliable than 7-day smoothed versions. Bitcoin ETF custodial transfers may not register as UTXO movements, distorting the signal.
Disclaimer: This model is for educational purposes only. Past cycle behaviour does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.