NUPL represents the difference between relative unrealised profit and relative unrealised loss across all Bitcoin UTXOs. When everyone is in profit and euphoric, distribution is near. When everyone is at a loss, accumulation becomes optimal.
NUPL = (Market Cap - Realised Cap) / Market Cap. Values below 0: average holder is underwater - strongest buy signal. Values above 0.75: extreme aggregate profit - strongest sell signal.
NUPL hit -0.28. Every holder on average held a loss. BTC bottomed at $3,200. +2,000% followed over 3 years.
NUPL reached 0.74 in April and 0.75 in November - both within the euphoria zone and within weeks of cycle peaks.
NUPL -0.22 post-FTX. Deepest negative reading since 2018. Confirmed structural bottom. BTC +600% over next 24 months.
NUPL approached 0.72 near the ATH - consistent with late distribution. Signal: reduce exposure.
NUPL is derived directly from Bitcoin blockchain UTXO data - transparent, immutable, independently verifiable.
NUPL extremes have marked every major cycle top and bottom since 2011 with high timing accuracy.
Current NUPL is in the Belief zone - consistent with late markup transitioning toward distribution.
NUPL can remain in extreme zones longer than expected - the 2021 cycle stayed above 0.5 for over 6 months. Custodial holdings may not register as UTXO movements. The metric does not account for lost coins which permanently suppress the realised cap calculation.
Disclaimer: This model is for educational purposes only. Past cycle behaviour does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.