Every 210,000 blocks β approximately every 4 years β the block reward miners receive is cut in half. This is not a theory. It is written into Bitcoin's source code and has executed perfectly since 2009. With demand constant or growing, basic economics dictates that cutting supply in half must affect price.
Block reward started at 50 BTC (2009). Halved to 25 BTC (2012), 12.5 BTC (2016), 6.25 BTC (2020), 3.125 BTC (2024). Each halving reduces new supply by 50%. At current prices, approximately 450 BTC per day enters circulation post-2024 halving β down from 900/day. Annual issuance is now below 1% of total supply.
BTC rose ~8,000% in the 12 months following. Price: $12 β $1,000.
BTC rose ~2,800% in the 18 months following. Price: $650 β $19,800.
BTC rose ~700% in the 18 months following. Price: $8,600 β $69,000.
Cycle unfolding. Post-halving ATH confirmed Oct 2025. Markup phase active.
The halving itself is 100% predictable β it is Bitcoin's code, not a prediction.
4 for 4 halvings have preceded major bull markets without exception.
Current phase is unambiguous β we are in post-halving markup.
The halving cycle assumes demand remains constant or grows. If adoption stalls, regulatory crackdowns occur, or a superior alternative emerges, the supply shock may not translate to price appreciation. Past halvings do not guarantee future results. The diminishing returns across each cycle (8,000% β 2,800% β 700%) suggest each halving produces smaller percentage gains.
Disclaimer: This model is for educational purposes only. Past cycle behaviour does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.