BTC/USD$—24H CHG+0.00%CYCLE PHASEMarkup1064/364 MODELActiveCOMPRESSION364 daysEXPANSION1,064 daysBTC/USD$—24H CHG+0.00%CYCLE PHASEMarkup1064/364 MODELActive
Live
PHASEMarkup
CONFIDENCE82%
NEXT EVENT163d → ATL
BTC/USD———
24H—
MODEL1064 / 364
CYCLEActive
BitcoinCycle.io/Methodology
Transparency & Trust

How This
Actually Works

Full transparency on how BitcoinCycle.io calculates every signal, confidence score, and phase classification. No black boxes. No vague claims. Just the data and the logic.

8
Independent models
12+
Years of backtesting
100%
Open methodology
Free
Always free
The Engine

How Confidence Scores Are Calculated

Each cycle model is assigned a confidence score based on three weighted factors:

Historical Consistency35-45%

How many times has this signal correctly predicted a major cycle event across all measured cycles?

Signal Clarity20-30%

How unambiguous is the current reading? A clear extreme scores higher than a borderline reading.

Theoretical Basis30-40%

Is there a fundamental economic or on-chain mechanism behind the signal, or is it purely statistical?

Overall site confidence is the unweighted average across all active models. Models are reviewed and updated manually on a regular basis. Scores are not algorithmically generated in real-time — they reflect considered human analysis of current on-chain and market conditions.

Phase Detection

How Phases Are Classified

AccumulationScore 0–35

Smart money accumulates. Fear dominant. NUPL negative. LTH supply rising. On-chain cost basis near market price.

MarkupScore 35–65

Price rising sustainably. NUPL 0.25–0.75. LTH supply stable. Funding rates moderate. Halving supply shock active.

DistributionScore 65–80

LTH supply declining. NUPL >0.5. Funding rates elevated. Derivatives OI high. Smart money rotating to cash.

MarkdownScore 80–100

Forced selling. NUPL negative. Miner capitulation. Funding negative. Liquidation cascades.

Model Documentation

All 8 Models — Full Transparency

Every formula, every data source, every historical track record. Click any model to see its full deep-dive page.

Protocol

Halving Supply Cycle

85%
confidence
Formula / Logic

Block reward halving every 210,000 blocks. Supply shock measured as % change in daily issuance.

Track Record
Confirmed2012 HalvingBTC +8,000% in 12 months
Confirmed2016 HalvingBTC +2,800% in 18 months
Confirmed2020 HalvingBTC +700% in 18 months
Active2024 HalvingPost-halving ATH confirmed Oct 2025
Data: mempool.space·Limitation: Assumes demand remains constant. Diminishing returns observed each cycle.
Full Analysis →
Proprietary

Time Compression Cycle

70%
confidence
Formula / Logic

1,064-day expansion / 364-day compression ratio anchored to Nov 21, 2022 FTX bottom ($15,476).

Track Record
ConfirmedCycle anchorFTX bottom Nov 2022 — structural low
ConfirmedATH projectionOct 2025 projection — ATH confirmed near date
PendingATL projectionOct 19, 2026 — cycle bottom projected
Data: BitcoinCycle.io·Limitation: Single-cycle model. Not validated across multiple independent cycles. Proprietary research only.
Full Analysis →
Macro

Global Liquidity Cycle

74%
confidence
Formula / Logic

BTC correlation with Global M2 (Fed + ECB + BOJ + PBOC). 12-16 week lead time observed.

Track Record
Confirmed2020-2021 BullM2 expansion → BTC +1,700%
Confirmed2022 BearM2 contraction → BTC -67%
Confirmed2023 RecoveryM2 re-expansion → BTC +175%
Data: FRED / TradingView·Limitation: Correlation not causation. Geopolitical shocks can override liquidity signals.
Full Analysis →
On-Chain

Holder Behavior Cycle

72%
confidence
Formula / Logic

LTH Supply (155+ day dormancy) + NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss). LTH peak = cycle bottom signal.

Track Record
Confirmed2018-2019 BottomLTH ATH + NUPL < 0 → BTC +340%
Confirmed2021 TopLTH decline → BTC -75% bear began
Confirmed2022-2023 BottomStrongest LTH accumulation on record
Data: Glassnode·Limitation: ETF custodial holdings may not appear as UTXO movement. Signal distortion risk increasing.
Full Analysis →
On-Chain

Miner Revenue Cycle

68%
confidence
Formula / Logic

Puell Multiple = Daily issuance USD / 365-day MA. Below 0.5 = buy zone. Above 4.0 = sell zone.

Track Record
Confirmed2018 CapitulationPuell 0.31 → Hash Ribbon buy Jan 2019 → +340%
Confirmed2020 COVIDPuell 0.45 → Hash Ribbon buy May 2020 → +600%
Confirmed2022 FTXPuell 0.38 → Hash Ribbon buy Feb 2023 → +250%
Data: Glassnode / mempool.space·Limitation: ASIC efficiency improvements alter cost basis. Fee revenue now supplements block rewards.
Full Analysis →
Market

Derivatives & Leverage Cycle

65%
confidence
Formula / Logic

Funding rate sustained >0.05%/8hr = overleveraged long. OI/MCap >3% = correction risk zone.

Track Record
ConfirmedApr 2021 CrashFunding >0.10% → BTC -30% in 24h
ConfirmedNov 2021 TopSustained extreme funding → ATH then -75%
ConfirmedNov 2022 FTXOI collapse 60% → cycle bottom
Data: Coinglass·Limitation: Can remain extreme longer than expected. Options markets add complexity not captured by OI.
Full Analysis →
On-Chain

NUPL Sentiment Cycle

71%
confidence
Formula / Logic

NUPL = (Market Cap - Realised Cap) / Market Cap. Below 0 = capitulation. Above 0.75 = euphoria.

Track Record
Confirmed2018 BottomNUPL -0.28 → cycle bottom at $3,200
Confirmed2021 TopsNUPL 0.74-0.75 → both cycle peaks
Confirmed2022 BottomNUPL -0.22 → structural bottom
Data: Glassnode·Limitation: Can remain in extreme zones 6+ months. Lost coins suppress realised cap calculation.
Full Analysis →
On-Chain

SOPR Sentiment Cycle

69%
confidence
Formula / Logic

SOPR = Realised value / Creation value of spent UTXOs. Above 1.0 = selling at profit. Below 1.0 = loss.

Track Record
Confirmed2020 COVID LowSOPR 0.78 → exact cycle low
Confirmed2021 Bull ContinuationSOPR held above 1.0 as bull support
Confirmed2022 BearSOPR held below 1.0 throughout bear
Data: Glassnode·Limitation: Noisy on single-day readings. ETF custodial transfers may not register as UTXO movements.
Full Analysis →
Data Infrastructure

Data Sources

GL
Glassnode
On-chain metrics: NUPL, SOPR, LTH supply, Puell Multiple, Hash Ribbon
ME
mempool.space
Block height, halving countdown, miner revenue, hash rate
CO
CoinGlass
Open interest, funding rates, liquidation data across exchanges
FR
FRED / St. Louis Fed
US M2 money supply, Fed balance sheet
TR
TradingView
Global M2 aggregation, price chart overlay, technical analysis
CO
CoinGecko
Historical OHLC price data for cycle measurement
CR
CryptoQuant
Cross-reference on-chain metrics, exchange flows
BI
Bitcoin Blockchain
Raw UTXO data — ultimate source of truth for all on-chain analysis
Honest Limitations

What This Is Not

⚠ Not financial advice

Nothing on this site constitutes investment advice. We analyse cycles. You make your own decisions.

⚠ Not real-time data

Most metrics are updated manually. We are not a live trading terminal. Treat all data as indicative.

⚠ Not infallible

Every model has failed before and will fail again. Past cycle behaviour does not guarantee future results.

⚠ Not affiliated

We are not affiliated with Glassnode, PlanB, Philip Swift, or any referenced indicator creator.

Full Disclaimer: BitcoinCycle.io is an independent educational research platform. All content is provided for informational purposes only. We independently calculate and visualise market data. We are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by any referenced indicator creators, data providers, or financial institutions. Names, trademarks, and brands referenced remain the property of their respective owners. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decision. Not financial advice.

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