NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) measures aggregate holder sentiment. Values near 0 = buy zone. Values above 0.75 = sell zone.
Bitcoin UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs) carry timestamps. By analyzing the age distribution of all bitcoin in circulation, we can identify when long-term holders (defined as 155+ day holds) are accumulating versus distributing. LTH behavior is consistently the most reliable on-chain cycle indicator because it directly measures patient, informed capital.
Long-Term Holder Supply (LTH-S): total BTC held by wallets dormant 155+ days. NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss): measures aggregate unrealized gains across all UTXOs on a 0-1 scale. Below 0 = extreme fear, capitulation. 0-0.25 = hope/accumulation. 0.25-0.5 = optimism. 0.5-0.75 = belief/markup. 0.75-1.0 = euphoria, distribution.
LTH supply reached record high. NUPL below 0. Market bottom confirmed. BTC +340% in 6 months.
LTH supply declined sharply as HODLers distributed into retail demand at $69K ATH.
LTH supply surged to ATH. Strongest accumulation signal on record. NUPL deeply negative.
LTH supply stable then declining slightly — consistent with late markup, early distribution.
UTXO data is transparent, immutable, and sourced directly from the Bitcoin blockchain.
LTH accumulation peaks have coincided with every major cycle bottom since 2013.
Current LTH behavior is consistent with late markup transitioning toward distribution.
On-chain metrics can be gamed by sophisticated actors using multiple wallets to simulate holding behavior. Exchange custody (custodial ETF holdings) may not appear as UTXO movement, distorting the signal. The rise of Bitcoin ETFs creates new UTXO patterns that may alter historical LTH analysis reliability.
Disclaimer: This model is for educational purposes only. Past cycle behaviour does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.